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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
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Its share price decline began after reaching an all-time high in September 2021. Over the course of five years it has slipped 73% to 530p.
It has been a challenging few years for Entain, having cycled through four CEOs in short succession. In November 2023 Entain agreed to pay a financial penalty totalling £585 million, plus a £20 million charitable donation and £10 million in Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) and HMRC costs. This related to a bribery case initiated by the CPS into the company’s historic operations in Turkey.
Troubles continued as it faced declining growth within its digital business. Reports of failed integrations amid a frenzy of acquisitions further dampened Entain’s reputation and the operator subsequently committed to a major turnaround effort to cut costs and return its digital business to growth.
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The Danish Gambling Authority said on Friday that the report stems from a broader review by FATF member countries over the past year.
The review examined the gaming sector and associated money laundering, terrorist financing and proliferation financing risks.
Spillemyndigheden said it contributed actively to this work and sat on FATF’s gaming sector working group. The regulator confirmed that many of the indicators in the report carry relevance for operators licensed in Denmark.