Inferno Diamonds

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In 2025, Brazil collected almost BRL10 billion ($1.97 billion) in tax revenue from the licensed sector. In the first seven months of this year alone, BRL8.7 billion generated by the activity was delivered to public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service itself estimates that the sector should reach BRL16 billion in revenue during 2026.

Besides revenue collection, another concern is legal and economic. Companies have paid over BRL2.5 billion for licences since the sector’s regulation. Certainly, the end of the activity would lead to litigation to recover the amounts paid and compensation for investments made. Furthermore, the revenue from betting is already included in the Annual Budget Law and the Budget Guidelines Law, which define the priorities for federal government spending.

What worries the sector is not just the threat of drastic measures against legalised betting. So far, the government has consistently fallen short in its attempts to curb the illegal market, which still represents almost half of the segment.

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This digital expansion coincided with a continued shrinkage in physical retail. Great Britain had 8,081 licensed premises at the end of the period, down 2% year-on-year.

Several operators have announced shop closures over recent months, including Entain and Flutter, citing a rising tax burden.

Online casino games remained the largest segment of the remote market, generating £5.7 billion ($7.6 billion) in GGY, with slots accounting for £4.8 billion ($6.4 billion) of that total.

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With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.

“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.

Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.