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“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.
While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
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Earlier this year, the Illinois Gaming Board approved 65 VGT licence applications in the city, according to the Sun-Times. VGTs are the highest-grossing gaming vertical in Illinois, generating substantially more revenue and taxes than land-based casinos.
Papanier said the components of Bally’s Chicago that are being “reset and re-contemplated” are “all in conjunction with the proliferation of VGTs”. While the current number of licences is low, he asserted that widespread proliferation could result in a “30% to 50% impact on top-line revenue” for the casino and it would be “irresponsible” to continue construction “until we understand what the landscape looks like”.
Bally’s stock jumped 7% in trading on Monday to $9.84. Shares had fallen 30% in the last month in response to uncertainty in Chicago and warnings about the company’s ability to continue as a growing concern in its Q2 earnings report. Former CFO Mira Mircheva resigned on 4 September, prompting Papanier to take over the role on an interim basis.
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The share price came under pressure following debt disclosures in Bally’s Q2 10-Q filing, which was submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission on 14 August.
In the filing, Bally’s noted that based on current forecasts, the business “does not project that it would satisfy the liquidity maintenance requirement” or the “consolidated net leverage ratio covenant” in its revolving credit facility over the next year.
The filing added: “As described below, while the company is actively engaged in discussions on several financing alternatives, the conditions and events raise substantial doubt about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern.”